[Answer] 3. Grandpa Louis has been at the blackjack table all day. He lost every hand and is down $10,000. Since he's lost so much, he's sure to start winning again soon.

Step 1 : Introduction to the question "3. Grandpa Louis has been at the blackjack table all day. He lost every hand and is down $10,000. Since he's lost so much, he's sure to start winning again soon."

...1. Appeal to ignorance 2. Gambler's fallacy 3. Appeal to authority 4. Post hoc ergo propter hoc The gambler's fallacy is a causal fallacy where one believes that independent events are actually related. For example: The overall probability of flipping a coin and it landing on heads is 0.5. Say you flipped five tails in a row. Someone using the gambler's fallacy would think that the next flip would have to be heads. However, each flip has a 0.5 chance of landing on either side, so the probability of the coin landing on heads is no more likely than it landing on tails. Each flip is an independent act.

Step 2 : Answer to the question "3. Grandpa Louis has been at the blackjack table all day. He lost every hand and is down $10,000. Since he's lost so much, he's sure to start winning again soon."

Gambler's fallacy:

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